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| | | Title | Implications of current Cocoa Price Hikes on African Trade and Macroeconomic Performance | | Author | AFREXIMBANK | | Subject | Trade | | Date of Publication | 2024 | | Publisher | AFREXIMBANK | | Number of Pages | 15 | | Language | English | | Abstract | The future of cocoa prices is uncertain, as it depends on various factors like weather patterns and disease outbreaks. While soaring cocoa prices present challenges, market participants are cautiously optimistic about long-term prospects. However, we anticipate it will be short-lived looking at historical patterns which suggests a correction in one to two years. Such big push in prices translate to incentives to boost the production in the near to medium term especially by regions not as affected by weather constraints. Declining cocoa inventories add to the concerns about global cocoa production and a long-term pattern of systematically rising prices. Given the duopoly in the cocoa market, a correction is more likely in the medium term. Most of the drivers seem transitory except climate shock which is likely to be recurrent. 1. Spread of diseases => Mostly transitory and can be treated. 2. Adverse weather conditions => Permanent, likely to be in the baseline. 3. High cost of fertilizers =>Transitory in the medium term as the Ukraine-Russia conflict abates. 4. Potential freight costs => Like (3) above. 5. Aging trees reaching end of productive lifespan => Transitory to permanent depending on government actions | | Filesize | 3579738 MB | | File Format | PDF | | [ View / download original document ] |
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