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TitleExamining the Effectiveness of Health Warnings on Cigarette Packaging in Nigeria: A Modelling Study
AuthorCentre for the Study of the Economies for Africa
Date of Publication2022
PublisherCentre for the Study of the Economies for Africa
Number of Pages36
KeywordsTobacco packaging
AbstractIntroduction: Tobacco consumption is associated with about 29,472 deaths in Nigeria alongside other health and economic impact. Meanwhile, evidence has shown that exposure to health warnings reduces tobacco consumption by providing information about the risks of tobacco. Consequently, evaluating the effect of affixing health warnings on cigarette packs on prevented premature deaths and disease events, years of lives lost due to premature death and disability, and savings in health costs is important in the Nigerian context. Aim: The paper sought to estimate the health and economic implications of existing, new, and the WHO-recommended labelling policies in Nigeria. Data and Methodology: The data utilized include costs, demographic, epidemiologic and economic data. An individual-level microsimulation model was employed to examine the impact of the current cigarette labelling policies (text only health warnings); new cigarette labelling policies (text and graphic health warnings with the total display area covered increasing from 50% to 80% over 10 years); and the WHO-recommended labelling policies (plain packaging and health warnings covering at least 80% of the pack). Findings: 748 deaths can be averted in the first scenario (text only health warnings), while 7 478 and 14 208 deaths can be averted in the second (text and graphic warnings), and third scenarios (plain packaging and health warnings) respectively. With respect to diseases, the number of cardiac arrests, cerebrovascular diseases, and cancer that could be averted in the second scenario (text and graphic warnings) are 3 093, 5 093, and 1 346 respectively which increases to 5 876, 9 676, and 2 557 in the third scenario (plain packaging and health warnings). Furthermore, the paper shows that up to 251 794 years can be lost due to early deaths and disability and up to US$180,713 savings can be made in the second scenario which increases to 478 408 years and US$342 353 in savings in the third scenario.
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